イランとの戦争、トランプ演説。なにを語ったのか

2026年4月2日の日本時間午前10時、アメリカのトランプ大統領がホワイトハウスから全米に向けてテレビ演説を行いました。

テーマはイランに対する軍事作戦オペレーション・エピック・フューリー（Operation Epic Fury）の現状報告です。作戦開始からちょうど1か月が経過したこのタイミングで、トランプ大統領は何を語り、そして日本への影響はどうなるのでしょうか。

オペレーション・エピック・フューリーとは

まず、この軍事作戦の背景を簡単に整理しておきましょう。2026年2月28日、アメリカとイスラエルはイランへの軍事攻撃を開始しました。イランの核開発阻止、弾道ミサイル網の壊滅、イラン海軍の撃滅、テロ支援プロキシ組織への打撃という4つの目標を掲げた大規模な作戦です。

イランとの対立は今に始まったことではなく、1979年のイスラム革命以来47年にわたって続いてきた緊張関係の積み重ねがあります。トランプ大統領は第1期政権時代（2017年から2021年）にも、オバマ政権のイラン核合意（JCPOA）を破棄し、イスラム革命防衛隊のソレイマニ司令官を暗殺するなど、イランに対して強硬な姿勢を取り続けてきました。今回の作戦はその延長線上にあります。

また、2025年6月に行われたオペレーション・ミッドナイト・ハンマーでイランの核施設を爆撃したものの、イランが別の場所で核開発を再開しようとしたことが今回の全面攻撃の直接的なきっかけとなりました。

演説の要点、トランプ大統領は何を語ったか

今回の演説は約19分間にわたるもので、軍事作戦の進捗報告と今後の方針が中心となりました。以下に主要なポイントを整理します。

軍事的な成果の主張

トランプ大統領はイラン海軍は消滅した。空軍は壊滅状態にある。イランの指導部のほとんどは死亡したと誇らしげに述べました。イスラム革命防衛隊の指揮統制機能も現在進行形で破壊が続いており、弾道ミサイルや無人機の発射能力も大幅に低下させたと説明しました。アメリカ中央軍の発表によると、作戦開始から1か月で1万2千以上の目標を攻撃し、155隻の海軍艦船を無力化したとされています。

一方で、アメリカ側にも犠牲者が出ています。演説の中でトランプ大統領は13人の米軍兵士の命が失われたことに言及し、ドーバー空軍基地での迎接に2度赴いたと述べました。

今後2〜3週間の激しい攻撃継続

演説の中で最も注目されたのが、今後2〜3週間、極めて激しく攻撃を続けるという発言です。これは前日の記者発言と一致しており、作戦の完全終了まではまだ時間がかかることを示しています。停戦交渉は水面下で継続されているものの、ホルムズ海峡の完全開放をイラン側が確約しない限り、攻撃を止めるつもりはないという強硬な立場を維持しました。

実際、演説に先立ってトランプ大統領はSNSにイランの新政権は停戦を求めてきた。ホルムズ海峡が完全に開放されれば検討すると投稿しており、交渉の主導権はアメリカ側が握っているという演出が随所に見られました。

電力インフラへの攻撃示唆

演説の中で強い警告として注目されたのが、合意が成立しなければ、イランのすべての発電施設を同時に攻撃するという発言です。これは経済インフラへの打撃を通じてイランに圧力をかける狙いとみられますが、実施された場合はイラン国民の生活への甚大な影響を招くため、国際社会から批判を招く可能性もあります。

石油はあえて攻撃していない

トランプ大統領はイランの石油施設については最も簡単な攻撃対象だが、あえて攻撃していないと述べました。

石油収入はイランが将来的に再建を図るうえで必要であり、完全に破壊してしまうと交渉の余地がなくなるという判断とみられています。しかし、交渉が決裂した場合には石油施設も攻撃対象になる、という強い脅しでもあります。

ホルムズ海峡の現状と日本が直面するエネルギー危機

今回の軍事衝突で最大の経済的打撃となっているのが、ホルムズ海峡の事実上の封鎖です。ペルシャ湾の出口に位置するこの海峡は、世界の石油供給量の約2〜3割が通過するエネルギーの大動脈です。

日本の中東への石油依存度は93〜94%に達しており、主要国の中で圧倒的に高い水準です。1973年の第1次石油危機以降、日本政府は輸入先の多様化を目指してきましたが、実質的にほとんど改善できないまま現在に至っています。

ガソリン・物価への直撃

実際の生活への影響はすでに顕在化しています。尼崎市内のガソリンスタンドでは、3月初めに1リットル140円台だったレギュラーガソリンが、わずか数週間で180円台に急騰したと関西テレビが報じています。国内各地でも値上がり前の駆け込み給油が相次ぎ、ガソリンスタンドに長蛇の列ができるという1973年の石油危機を想起させる光景が見られました。

原油価格については、一時1バレル120ドル近くまで急騰しました。SMBC日興証券の試算によると、原油価格が1バレル100ドルで推移した場合、日本の物価に約0.8%の上振れ圧力がかかるとされています。輸入コストの増大は貿易赤字を拡大させ、円安圧力となって日本銀行のインフレ抑制の取り組みをさらに困難にさせる懸念もあります。

石油備蓄は約8か月分あるが、ナフサは別問題

日本政府は国家備蓄と民間備蓄を合わせて原油換算で約254日分（8か月強）の石油備蓄を保有しており、電力供給の面では比較的安定しているとされています。石油火力発電の割合は1970年代の約60%から現在は約7%まで低下しており、電気が止まる可能性は低いとみられています。

しかし、ナフサ（プラスチック・合成ゴム・合成繊維の原料）については状況が異なります。日本の製油所で生産されるナフサは国内需要の3割程度にすぎず、残りの7割はUAE・クウェートなどの中東諸国や韓国から輸入しています。韓国も同様にホルムズ海峡経由で原油を大量輸入しているため、双方から確保できなくなる可能性があります。三井化学などの大手化学メーカーはすでにエチレンの減産に踏み切っており、製造業全体に連鎖的な影響が広がるリスクが指摘されています。

日本の金融市場への影響、株価・為替はどう動いたか

トランプ大統領の演説を受けた日本市場の反応は、端的に言えば失望売りでした。日経平均株価は演説翌日の取引で1000円超の下落を記録しました（NHKニュース）。市場はある程度近日中の停戦合意発表を期待していましたが、今後2〜3週間は攻撃を続けると宣言したことでその期待が剥落したとみられます。

為替面では、ドル円が158円台前半まで下落する場面もありました。イランとの早期和解期待が高まれば原油安・リスクオン・ドル高の流れになりますが、長期化懸念が強まれば逆方向の動きとなります。停戦交渉の進展次第で、今後も相場の振れ幅は大きい状況が続くとみられます。

日本企業への実務的影響、業種別に考える

投資家やビジネスパーソンの立場から、今回の事態が各業種にどのような影響を与えるかを整理します。

エネルギー・素材関連

原油価格の高止まりは、電力会社やガス会社のコスト増につながります。ただし、化石燃料の価格上昇は再生可能エネルギー関連株やLNG代替ルートの確保に動く商社株にとってはプラス材料になる側面もあります。化学メーカーはナフサ調達難という直接的なリスクに直面しており、業績見通しの下方修正が相次ぐ可能性があります。

海運・物流

日本郵船や川崎汽船など国内大手は、ホルムズ海峡を経由する航路の通峡をすでに停止しています。迂回ルートの利用による輸送コスト増と輸送期間の長期化は、荷主企業全体にコスト上昇圧力となります。一方、紛争終結後の輸送需要の急回復を見込んだポジショニングも視野に入れるべきタイミングです。

製造業（自動車・電機）

プラスチックや合成ゴムの原料となるナフサ不足は、部品調達に影響を与える可能性があります。すでに石油化学コンビナートの一部が減産や操業停止の可能性を顧客に通知しており、自動車メーカーや電機メーカーのサプライチェーンへの影響が注目されます。

内需・食品・小売

ガソリン価格の上昇は物流コストの増大を通じて、食品や日用品の値上げ圧力になります。消費者の購買意欲が低下するリスクも考慮が必要です。

終戦後の復興需要という視点、中東の再建と日本企業のチャンス

イラン後の中東復興需要が今後見込まれます。

トランプ大統領は政権転覆は目標ではなかったが、結果的に旧指導部は壊滅した。新たな指導部はより穏健で合理的だと述べました。旧体制の崩壊後、イランでは電力インフラ・水道・通信・医療・住宅など社会インフラ全般の再建が必要になります。過去のイラク戦争後やクウェート解放後のような形で、日本の建設・プラント・インフラ企業に商機が生まれる可能性は十分に考えられます。

また、トランプ大統領はベネズエラに次いで中東を安定した石油供給源として整備しようとしているという大きな構図も透けて見えます。中東の政治的安定化が進めば、エネルギー安全保障の観点から日本にとっても中長期的にはプラスになり得ます。

今後の注目ポイントとビジネスへのヒント

最後に、今後の展開で押さえておくべきポイントをまとめます。

第一に、ホルムズ海峡の早期開放が実現するかどうかが最大の焦点です。トランプ大統領は海峡開放が停戦の条件と明言しており、イラン新政権がこれを受け入れるかが今後2〜3週間の最大のヤマ場です。開放が実現すれば原油価格は急速に落ち着き、日本の物価やサプライチェーンへの圧力も緩和されます。

第二に、米国の石油増産と日本のエネルギー調達戦略です。トランプ大統領はアメリカは世界最大の石油・ガス生産国であり、サウジアラビアとロシアを合わせた以上の生産量を誇ると繰り返し強調しました。実際、日本は米国産LNGの調達を今後さらに増やす方向で動く可能性があります。長期的なエネルギー調達の多様化は、日本企業のサプライチェーンリスク管理の観点から不可欠な課題です。

第三に、中東の地政学的地図の塗り替えです。今回の作戦でイランの軍事力は大きく後退し、サウジアラビア・UAE・イスラエルを軸とした新たな中東秩序の形成が進む可能性があります。中東でのビジネス戦略を持つ企業は、新しい地域マップの中で自社のポジションを再評価する必要が出てきます。

トランプ大統領の演説は終わりの始まりを示唆するものでしたが、今後2〜3週間の動向次第では情勢が急変する可能性もあります。

【参考】トランプ演説内容

Update on Operation Epic Fury
And our brave astronauts on the successful launch of Artemis 2. It was quite something. It will be traveling further than any manned rocket has ever flown and will very substantially pass the moon, go around it and come back home from a distance that has never been done before. It’s amazing. They are on the way and God bless them. These are brave people. We want to God bless those four unbelievable astronauts.

As we speak this evening, it’s been just one month since the United States military began Operation Epic Fury, targeting the world’s number one state sponsor of terror, Iran. In these past four weeks, our armed forces have delivered swift, decisive, overwhelming victories on the battlefield—victories like few people have ever seen before.

Tonight, Iran’s navy is gone. Their air force is in ruins. Their leaders, most of them, and the terrorist regime they led, are now dead. Their command and control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is being decimated as we speak. Their ability to launch missiles and drones is dramatically curtailed. And their weapons, factories, and rocket launchers are being blown to pieces. Very few of them left. Never in the history of warfare has an enemy suffered such clear and devastating large-scale losses. In a matter of weeks, our enemies are losing, and America—as it has been for five years under my presidency—is winning and now winning bigger than ever before.

Before discussing this current situation, I also want to thank our troops for the masterful job they did in taking the country of Venezuela in a matter of minutes. That it was quick, lethal, violent, and respected by everyone all over the world. After rebuilding our military during my first term, we have by far the strongest military anywhere in the world. And now we’re working along with Venezuela as, in a true sense, joint venture partners. We’re getting along incredibly well in the production and sale of massive amounts of oil and gas—the second largest reserves on Earth after the United States of America.

We’re now totally independent of the Middle East and yet we are there to help. We don’t have to be there. We don’t need their oil. We don’t need anything they have, but we’re there to help our allies. Tonight, I want to provide an update on the tremendous progress our warriors have made in Iran and discuss why Operation Epic Fury is necessary for the safety of America and the security of the free world.

From the very first day I announced my campaign for president in 2015, I have vowed that I would never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon. This fanatical regime has been chanting “Death to America, Death to Israel” for 47 years. Their proxies were behind the murder of 241 Americans in the Marine barracks bombing in Beirut, the slaughter of hundreds of our service members with roadside bombs. They were involved in the attack on the USS Cole and they carried out the countless other heinous acts including the blood—just horrible bloody atrocities of October 7th in Israel. Something that most people have never seen anything like it. This murderous regime also recently killed 45,000 of their own people who were protesting in Iran. 45,000 dead.

For these terrorists to have nuclear weapons would be an intolerable threat. The most violent and thuggish regime on Earth would be free to carry out their campaigns of terror, coercion, conquest, and mass murder from behind a nuclear shield. I will never let that happen, and neither should any of our past presidents. This situation has been going on for 47 years and should have been handled long before I arrived in office.

I did many things during my two terms in office to stop the quest for nuclear weapons by Iran. First and perhaps most importantly, I killed General Qasem Soleimani in my first term. He was an evil genius, a brilliant person, a horrible human being. However, the father of the roadside bomb and he lived—just horrible what he did. Iran would have been perhaps in a far better, stronger position had he lived; we would have had probably a different conversation tonight. But you know what? We’d still be winning and winning big.

And then very importantly, I terminated Barack Hussein Obama’s Iran nuclear deal—a disaster. Obama gave them $1.7 billion dollars in cash. Green, green cash. Took it out of banks from Virginia, DC, and Maryland. All the cash they had. He flew it by airplanes in an attempt to buy their respect and loyalty, but it didn’t work. They laughed at our president and went on with their mission to have a nuclear bomb. His Iran deal would have led to a colossal arsenal of massive nuclear weapons for Iran and they would have had them years ago and they would have used them. It would have been a different world. There would have been no Middle East and no Israel right now in my opinion, and the opinion of a lot of great experts, had I not terminated that terrible deal. And I was so honored to do it. I was so proud to do it. It was so bad right from the beginning. Essentially, I did what no other president was willing to do. They made mistakes and I am correcting them.

My first preference was always the path of diplomacy. Yet, the regime continued their relentless quest for nuclear weapons and rejected every attempt at an agreement. For this reason, in June, I ordered a strike on Iran’s key nuclear facilities in Operation Midnight Hammer. Nobody’s ever seen anything like it. Those beautiful B-2 bombers performed magnificently. We totally obliterated those nuclear sites. The regime then sought to rebuild their nuclear program at a totally different location, making clear they had no intention of abandoning their pursuit of nuclear weapons. They were also rapidly building a vast stockpile of conventional ballistic missiles and would soon have had missiles that could reach the American homeland, Europe, and virtually any other place on Earth.

Iran’s strategy was so obvious. They wanted to produce as many missiles as possible, and they did, with the longest range possible. And they had some weapons that nobody believed they had. We just learned that out. We took them out. We took them all out so that no one would really dare stop them in their race for a nuclear bomb—a nuclear weapon like nobody’s ever seen before. They were right at the doorstep.

For years, everyone has said that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons. But in the end, those are just words if you’re not willing to take action when the time comes. As I stated in my announcement of Operation Epic Fury, our objectives are very simple and clear. We are systematically dismantling the regime’s ability to threaten America or project power outside of their borders. That means eliminating Iran’s navy, which is now absolutely destroyed; hurting their air force and their missile program at levels never seen before; and annihilating their defense industrial base. We’ve done all of it. Their navy is gone, their air force is gone. Their missiles are just about used up or beaten. Taken together, these actions will crush the Iran military, crush their ability to support terrorist proxies, and deny them the ability to build a nuclear bomb.

Our armed forces have been extraordinary. There’s never been anything like it militarily. Everyone is talking about it. And tonight, I’m pleased to say that these core strategic objectives are nearing completion. As we celebrate this progress, we think especially of the 13 American warriors who have laid down their lives in this fight to prevent our children from ever having to face a nuclear Iran. Twice this past month, I have traveled to Dover Air Force Base, and it’s been something. I wanted to be with those heroes as they returned to American soil when I was with them and their families—their parents, their wives, the husbands. We salute them. And now we must honor them by completing the mission for which they gave their lives. And every single one of the people, their loved ones said, “Please, sir, please finish the job.” Every one of them. And we are going to finish the job. And we’re going to finish it very fast. We’re getting very close.

I want to thank our allies in the Middle East: Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain. They’ve been great, and we will not let them get hurt or fail in any way, shape, or form.

Many Americans have been concerned to see the recent rise in gasoline prices here at home. This short-term increase has been entirely the result of the Iranian regime launching deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers and neighboring countries that have nothing to do with the conflict. This is yet more proof that Iran can never be trusted with nuclear weapons. They will use them and they will use them quickly. It would lead to decades of extortion, economic pain, and instability worse than we can ever imagine.

The United States has never been better prepared economically to confront this threat. You all know that. We built the strongest economy in history. We’re going through it right now. The strongest in history. In one year, we’ve taken a dead and crippled country—I hate to say that, but we were a dead and crippled country after the last administration—and made it the hottest country anywhere in the world by far with no inflation. Record-setting investments coming into the United States, over $18 trillion, and the highest stock market ever with 53 all-time record highs in just one year. It all positioned us to get rid of a cancer that has long simmered. It’s known as the nuclear Iran. And they didn’t know what was coming. They’ve never imagined it.

Remember, because of our “drill baby drill” program, America has plenty of gas. We have so much gas. Under my leadership, we are the number one producer of oil and gas on the planet, without even discussing the millions of barrels that we’re getting from Venezuela. Because of the Trump administration’s policies, we produce more oil and gas than Saudi Arabia and Russia combined. Think of that. Saudi Arabia and Russia combined. And that number will soon be substantially higher than that. There’s no country like us anywhere in the world, and we’re in great shape for the future.

The United States imports almost no oil through the Strait of Hormuz and won’t be taking any in the future. We don’t need it. We haven’t needed it and we don’t need it. We’ve beaten and completely decimated Iran. They are decimated both militarily and economically and every other way. And the countries of the world that do receive oil through the Strait of Hormuz must take care of that passage. They must cherish it. They must grab it and cherish it. They can do it easily. We will be helpful, but they should take the lead in protecting the oil that they so desperately depend on.

So to those countries that can’t get fuel, many of which refuse to get involved in the decapitation of Iran—we had to do it ourselves—I have a suggestion. Number one, buy oil from the United States of America. We have plenty. We have so much. And number two, build up some delayed courage. Should have done it before. Should have done it with us as we asked. Go to the strait and just take it, protect it, use it for yourselves. Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done. So, it should be easy.

And in any event, when this conflict is over, the strait will open up naturally. It’ll just open up naturally. They’re going to want to be able to sell oil because that’s all they have to try and rebuild. It will resume the flowing and the gas prices will rapidly come back down. Stock prices will rapidly go back up. They haven’t come down very much. Frankly, they came down a little bit, but they’ve had some very good days over the last couple of days. We’ve done actually much better than I thought, but we had to take that little journey to Iran to get rid of this horrible threat.

With our historic tax cuts where people are just now talking about receiving larger refunds than they ever thought possible—they are getting so much more money than they thought, that’s from the great big beautiful bill—our economy is strong and improving by the day and it will soon be roaring back like never before, or it will top the levels that it was a month ago.

I’ve made clear from the beginning of Operation Epic Fury that we will continue until our objectives are fully achieved. Thanks to the progress we’ve made, I can say tonight that we are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly. Very shortly, we are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages where they belong.

In the meantime, discussions are ongoing. Regime change was not our goal. We never said regime change, but regime change has occurred because of all of their original leaders’ death. They’re all dead. The new group is less radical and much more reasonable. Yet if during this period of time no deal is made, we have our eyes on key targets. If there is no deal, we are going to hit each and every one of their electric generating plants very hard and probably simultaneously. We have not hit their oil even though that’s the easiest target of all because it would not give them even a small chance of survival or rebuilding. But we could hit it and it would be gone and there’s not a thing they could do about it. They have no anti-aircraft equipment. Their radar is 100% annihilated. We are unstoppable as a military force.

The nuclear sites that we obliterated with the B-2 bombers have been hit so hard that it would take months to get near the nuclear dust, and we have it under intense satellite surveillance and control. If we see them make a move, even a move for it, we’ll hit them with missiles very hard. Again, we have all the cards. They have none.

It’s very important that we keep this conflict in perspective. American involvement in World War I lasted one year, 7 months, and 5 days. World War II lasted for 3 years, 8 months, and 25 days. The Korean War lasted for three years, 1 month, and two days. The Vietnam War lasted for 19 years, 5 months, and 29 days. Iraq went on for 8 years, 8 months, and 28 days. We are in this military operation—so powerful, so brilliant—against one of the most powerful countries for 32 days, and the country has been eviscerated and essentially is really no longer a threat. They were the bully of the Middle East, but they’re the bully no longer.

This is a true investment in your children and your grandchildren’s future. The whole world is watching and they can’t believe the power, strength, and brilliance. They just can’t believe what they’re seeing. They leave it to your imagination, but they can’t believe what they’re seeing. The brilliance of the United States military.

Tonight, every American can look forward to a day when we are finally free from the wickedness of Iranian aggression and the spectre of nuclear blackmail. Because of the actions we have taken, we are on the cusp of ending Iran’s sinister threat to America and the world. And I’ll tell you, the world is watching. And when we do, when it’s all over, the United States will be safer, stronger, more prosperous, and greater than it has ever been before.

May God bless the men and women of the United States Armed Forces, and may God bless the United States of America. Thank you very much and good night.